Latest Monmouth University Poll, Slight Dip in Murphy Ratings

Lt. Gov. Oliver was the first woman of color to hold statewide office in New Jersey. However, most residents (83%) say that race should not be a factor when Murphy names her replacement. Just 15% say he should appoint another person of color – including 32% of Black New Jerseyans, 17% of Hispanics, Asians and other people of color, and 11% of non-Hispanic white residents. Similarly, just 16% of New Jerseyans prefer that Murphy choose a woman, while 80% say the new officeholder’s gender does not matter to them. Even among fellow Democrats, the vast majority would not factor gender and race into the choice of a new lieutenant governor.

“Sheila Oliver broke barriers in New Jersey politics. However, most New Jerseyans do not feel that means gender and race should be primary factors in choosing her successor,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.

The poll finds that Murphy’s overall job performance rating stands at 50% approve and 39% disapprove among all New Jersey adults and 50% approve and 40% disapprove among registered voters. These numbers, while remaining positive, are down slightly since the start of his second term last year and more in line with voter opinion during his 2021 reelection campaign. Murphy’s approval rating is stable among his fellow Democrats (85% now and 86% in April 2022), but has dropped a few points among independents (43%, from 51% in 2022) and Republicans (12%, from 17%). Regionally, the governor’s approval has held fairly steady in North Jersey (54% now and 57% in 2022), but has declined in both Central Jersey (49%, from 60%) and South Jersey (41% from 48%).

Three in 10 New Jerseyans (33%) say Murphy has achieved major accomplishments during his time as governor and 39% say he has minor accomplishments. Another 27% say he has no real accomplishments to point to. The poll’s major accomplishment number has ticked up by a few points in the past year, mainly due to an increase among Democrats. At the same time, the minor accomplishment number has ticked down, primarily among Republicans. Despite the small shifts, the statewide results remain in line with prior polls going back to 2021.

The Monmouth University Poll also asked how Murphy’s policies have impacted six different constituent groups in New Jersey. These ratings have largely been stable during the governor’s tenure. The largest change, in relative terms, has been in opinion of his impact on property taxpayers. Currently, 23% say Murphy’s policies have helped property taxpayers, which is up from 13% a year ago. Still, far more New Jerseyans (49%) say his policies have hurt this group, with 20% saying there has been no impact on property taxpayers. Similarly, 31% say middle-class residents have been helped by the governor’s policies, while more (44%) say they have been hurt and 19% say there has been no impact on the middle class. Opinion is somewhat more positive, although still divided, on how the Murphy administration has affected the lives of poor residents (36% helped and 32% hurt) and wealthy residents (29% helped and 19% hurt), as well as transit riders (26% helped and 20% hurt). The effect of the governor’s policies for businesses in the state is seen as a net negative (28% helped and 38% hurt).

Other results find that opinion of the state legislature’s performance has dipped in the past year and now stands at 37% approve (from 44% in April 2022), and 45% disapprove (from 39%). The current result is similar to public opinion of the legislature in 2019 polling.

The Monmouth University Poll was conducted by telephone from August 10 to 14, 2023 with 814 New Jersey adults. The question results in this release have a margin of error of +/- 5.4 percentage points for the full sample. The poll was conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, NJ.

QUESTIONS AND RESULTS     

(* Some columns may not add to 100% due to rounding.)

[Q1 held for future release.]

2. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Phil Murphy is doing as governor?

3. Do you approve or disapprove of the job the state legislature is doing?

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[Q4-8 held for future release.]

9. Thinking about Phil Murphy’s time as governor so far, would you say that he has major accomplishments, minor accomplishments, or no real accomplishments to point to?

10. I’d like to get your opinion on how Governor Murphy’s policies have affected different groups of New Jerseyans. Have his policies helped, hurt, or had no impact on [READ ITEM]? [ITEMS WERE ROTATED] [Note: In April 2018, poll question asked “how Governor Murphy’s policies will affect different groups…”]

Middle class residents

Poor residents

Wealthy residents

Property tax payers

Transit riders

Businesses

11. As you may know, Lieutenant Governor Sheila Oliver passed away earlier this month. The governor gets to appoint her replacement. Would you rather he appoint a woman or a man, or does this not matter to you?

12. Lieutenant Governor Oliver was African American. Should the governor appoint another person of color or should race not be a factor in his choice?

[Q13-47 held for future release.]

METHODOLOGY

The Monmouth University Poll was sponsored and conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute from August 10 to 14, 2023 with a probability-based random sample of 814 New Jersey adults age 18 and older. Interviews were conducted in English, and included 245 live landline telephone interviews, 360 live cell phone interviews, and 209 online surveys via a cell phone text invitation. Telephone numbers were selected through random digit dialing and landline respondents were selected with a modified Troldahl-Carter youngest adult household screen. Monmouth is responsible for all aspects of the survey design, data weighting and analysis. The full sample is weighted for region, age, education, gender and race based on US Census information (ACS 2021 one-year survey). Interviewing services were provided by Braun Research, with sample obtained from Dynata. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the error attributable to sampling has a maximum margin of plus or minus 5.4 percentage points adjusted for sample design effects (1.56). Sampling error can be larger for sub-groups (see table below). In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls.

NJ Regions (by county)

North – Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Morris, Passaic, Sussex, Union, Warren

Central – Hunterdon, Mercer, Middlesex, Monmouth, Somerset

South – Atlantic, Burlington, Camden, Cape May, Cumberland, Gloucester, Ocean, Salem

Demographics (weighted)

Party (self-reported): 22% Republican, 43% Independent, 35% Democrat

Sex: 49% Male, 51% Female

Age: 27% 18-34, 34% 35-54, 39% 55+

Race: 55% White, 13% Black, 19% Hispanic, 13% Asian/Other

College: 58% No degree, 42% 4 year degree

Crosstabs may be found in the PDF file on the report webpage: https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_NJ_081623/