Monmouth University Poll: OPTIMISM ABOUT TRUMP POLICIES TEMPERED BY CONCERN OVER TARIFF IMPACT

Just over half (53%) the public feels optimistic about the policies Trump will pursue over the next few years, while 45% are pessimistic. These overall results are similar to public expectations when Trump was about to start his first term in 2017 (50% optimistic and 43% pessimistic), but there has been a notable shift in intensity among the president-elect’s fellow partisans. Nearly all Republicans (97%) are optimistic about Trump’s agenda, as they were eight years ago, but 76% now report being very optimistic. This is a big jump from 53% of Republicans who felt very optimistic prior to Trump taking office in 2017. Among other partisan groups, 52% of independents feel at least somewhat optimistic about Trump’s policies over the next few years (50% in 2017), while just 10% of Democrats feel the same (18% in 2017).

“Republicans are even more enthusiastic about a second Trump term than they were the first time around. They are particularly looking forward to him following through on the plans he promised,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.

The Monmouth University Poll asked Americans about six different policy proposals President-elect Trump made during the election campaign. There is widespread public support for eliminating income tax on tips, overtime, and social security (66% favor and 21% oppose), but the other proposals receive a mixed to negative reaction. Just under half (49%) the public favors the mass deportation of immigrants who are living illegally in the U.S., while 39% oppose this. Opinion is evenly divided on imposing tariffs on goods imported from other countries (42% favor and 40% opposed). Americans are less supportive of proposals to cancel equity and diversity programs in the federal government (36% favor and 45% oppose), to cut corporate tax rates (32% favor and 46% oppose), and to eliminate most vaccine mandates for school children (32% favor and 51% oppose). Majorities of Republicans support all these proposals, though. Most Democrats oppose them, with the exception of eliminating income tax on tips, overtime and social security, where Democratic opinion is evenly divided.

“It should come as no surprise there is a stark partisan divide on the Trump agenda. The real question is how these policies will affect American families, especially among those who voted for Trump in 2024,” said Murray.

Most Americans expect that two of the proposals included in the poll will have a direct impact on their own family. These are imposing tariffs on imported goods (72%) and eliminating income tax on certain wages (64%). However, there is a difference of opinion on whether these impacts will be good or bad. On cutting the income tax on tips, overtime and social security, 48% say their own family will be helped and 15% say they will be hurt. The expectation is flipped on the question of tariffs. Nearly half (47%) say their family will be hurt under Trump’s tariff proposal and just 23% say they will be helped. Voters in the 2024 election who supported Trump are more likely to think both proposals will help their families (64% for the income tax plan and 45% for tariffs). The vast majority of Kamala Harris voters say they will be hurt by tariffs (86%) although they are split on the impact of eliminating income tax on certain wages (30% help and 26% hurt). Among those who supported other candidates or did not vote in last month’s election, 51% say the income tax plan will help them (compared with 18% hurt), but 40% say the tariff plan will hurt them (compared with 21% help).

Less than half of all Americans think the other four proposals asked about in the poll will have a direct impact on their own family, but there are some differences by 2024 vote choice. Specifically, most Harris voters (64%) say the plan to eliminate vaccine mandates will impact them (almost wholly negatively), while a majority of Trump voters (52%) say that mass deportation of illegal immigrants will directly impact them (almost wholly positively).

“Very few Trump voters believe that any of his policies will hurt their own families. The highest number is 14% for his tariff plan. At the opposite end of the spectrum, very few Harris voters believe that Trump’s policies will help them. Other than eliminating taxes for tips and other income, the highest number of Harris voters say they will be helped by these policies is 7% for cutting corporate taxes. It will be interesting to see how this plays out if and when these policies are implemented,” said Murray.

In other poll findings, 36% of Americans believe middle-class families will benefit a lot from Trump’s policies and 30% say they will benefit a little. The number who say the middle class will benefit a lot is a marked increase from Trump’s first term expectations (26% in Jan. 2017) and is also higher than the outlook for President Joe Biden four years ago (30% in Jan. 2021). Republicans are much more likely to say the middle class will benefit a lot from Trump’s policies in his second term (75%) than said the same at the outset of his first (56%). On the other hand, most Democrats (61%) say that the middle class will not benefit at all from Trump’s policies over the next few years, while independents are divided, with 31% saying the middle class will benefit a lot, 35% a little, and 33% not at all.

Republicans are more likely to feel that poor families will benefit a lot from Trump’s policies (69%) than they were eight years ago (41%). This view is not shared by independents (27% will benefit a lot) or Democrats (4% a lot). In fact, most Democrats (76%) and nearly half of independents (46%) believe that poor families will not benefit at all from Trump’s policies in his second term, which is even more pessimistic, albeit just slightly more, than they were at the start of his first term.

There is a different partisan pattern for expectations about how Trump’s policies will benefit wealthy families. Most Democrats (79%) and independents (61%) say the wealthy will benefit a lot, while 45% of Republicans agree. There is relatively more partisan agreement on how Trump’s policies will impact big business interests. In this case, majorities of Democrats (87%), independents (66%), and Republicans (52%) say big business will benefit a lot from a second Trump term.

A majority (54%) of the public approve of how Trump is handling the transition process. Looking back, half (50%) of Americans approve of the job Trump did when he was president while 46% disapprove. This marks the first time in Monmouth’s polling that Trump’s job rating – either during his first term or retrospectively – has been in net positive territory. When he left office in January 2021, just 41% approved of his job performance and 56% disapproved. Republican approval of Trump’s first term increased from 83% nearly four years ago to 92% now. There have been more modest shifts among independents (from 46% approve in 2021 to 50% now) and Democrats (from 8% in 2021 to 10% now).

The Monmouth University Poll was conducted by telephone and online from December 5 to 10, 2024 with 1,006 adults in the United States. The question results in this release have a margin of error of +/- 3.9 percentage points for the full sample. The poll was conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, NJ.

QUESTIONS AND RESULTS     

(* Some columns may not add to 100% due to rounding.)

[Q1-9 previously released.]

10. Looking back, do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump did when he was president?

[Q11 previously released.]

12. Is your general impression of Donald Trump very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable?

            *  Polls prior to 2023 included an explicit “no opinion” option in the question.

13. Do you approve or disapprove of how Donald Trump is handling the transition process? [Is that strongly or somewhat approve/disapprove?]

14. Thinking about the next few years, do you feel optimistic or pessimistic about the policies Trump will pursue? [Is that very or somewhat optimistic/pessimistic?]

15. Please tell me whether you think each of the following groups will benefit from President Trump’s policies a lot, a little, or not at all? [ITEMS WERE ROTATED]

Middle class families

Wealthy families

Poor families

Big business interests

16. Please tell me whether you favor, oppose, or have no opinion on the following proposals President-elect Trump made during the election campaign. [ITEMS WERE ROTATED]

17.    Regardless of whether you favor or oppose these policies, do you think they will or will not have a direct impact on your family if they are enacted? [If WILL HAVE DIRECT IMPACT:] Will this policy help or hurt your family? [ITEMS WERE ROTATED]

[Q18-26 previously released.]

METHODOLOGY

The Monmouth University Poll was sponsored and conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute from December 5 to 10, 2024 with a probability-based national random sample of 1,006 adults age 18 and older. Interviews were conducted in English, and included 208 live landline telephone interviews, 540 live cell phone interviews, and 258 online surveys via a cell phone text invitation. Telephone numbers were selected through a mix of random digit dialing and list-based sampling. Landline respondents were selected with a modified Troldahl-Carter youngest adult household screen. Interviewing services were provided by Braun Research, with sample obtained from Dynata (RDD, n=637), Aristotle (list, n=115) and a panel of prior Monmouth poll participants (n=254). Monmouth is responsible for all aspects of the survey design, data weighting and analysis. The full sample is weighted for region, age, education, gender and race based on US Census information (ACS 2022 one-year survey). For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the error attributable to sampling has a maximum margin of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points adjusted for sample design effects (1.63). Sampling error can be larger for sub-groups (see table below). In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls.

Demographics (weighted)

Party (self-reported): 27% Republican, 47% Independent, 26% Democrat

Sex: 49% men, 50% women, 1% other

Age: 29% 18-34, 33% 35-54, 38% 55+

Race: 62% White, 11% Black, 17% Hispanic, 10% Asian/other

Education: 38% high school or less, 29% some college, 18% 4 year degree, 15% graduate degree

Crosstabs may be found in the PDF file on the report webpage: https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_US_121724/